A pretty rare occurrence tonight of a Secret Hunter with five secrets up at only two mana. I mean, that’s pretty crazy, Paladins were scary last year with five secrets on turn six, remember?

On the spot I noticed it (hence the screenshot), but it’s only after the game (won, by the way) that I realised how rare this was.

The card log on the left shows that the one not in play was Explosive Trap.

Now, let’s look at the situation closely: for this to happen, it is imperative to play second, as without coin it would be impossible to play the Cloaked Huntress on turn two. That alone has a 0.5 probability of happening in a given game.

I don’t remember the order in which I received the secrets, but I remember that I had four of them from the scratch, which is what inspired me to keep them. In all honesty, I was hoping to draw first a Secretkeeper, then the Cloaked Huntress, instead I drew first the fifth secret, then the Cloaked Huntress.

We start with 30 cards. I played my coin first, then all cards from right to left, starting of course with the Cloaked Huntress which reduces the cost of the secrets to 0, so I received the cards in the opposite order (left to right).

There is a total of 10 secrets in this deck meaning that when I drew my first card, the odds of drawing a secret were 1/3 or 0.333333333

Once Cat Trick was in my hand, 29 cards were remaining, but only 8 would do it for the second secret, as a second copy of the first wouldn’t work. So probability of drawing a second secret different from the first was 8/29 or 0.275862069. After drawing Snipe, we are down to 6/28 or 0.214285714 then 4/27 or 0.148148148 for the following one. The fourth one was Snake Trap, one copy only, so the odds for the fifth secret I got on tour one were 3/26 or 0.115384615.

Finally, the Cloaked Huntress I drew on tour two: 2/25 or 0.08

1/2 x 10/30 x 8/29 x 6/28 x 4/27 x 3/26 x 2/25 = 0.0000134731169214

In the end, the chances for such a combination were pretty low: 1 in 74,222

One could argue that it’s not that low, but considering I have been playing for about 16 months, and I played a total of 250 games with the Hunter, that still represents about 400 years of playing hunter at my current pace, which suddenly gives a better idea of the rarity of the event.